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Analysts Continue To Adjust BCB Rate Decision Forecasts

BRAZIL
  • Copom Decision is due after market close this evening, with the majority of surveyed analysts now forecasting a 150bps hike, bringing the Selic rate to 7.75%.
  • Our preview can be found via the following link: https://marketnews.com/mni-bcb-preview-october-2021-altering-the-flight-path
    • Please note that some of the analyst views have changed and the adjusted rate calls/analysis will be detailed this afternoon where possible.
  • The DI curve came under further pressure yesterday following the release of mid-October IPCA inflation that exceeded expectations to reach 10.34% Y/y. The front-end of the curve rose between 50-60 basis points, with some commentators now placing a small chance of even bolder action from the central bank than the 150bps now expected.
  • DI swap contracts expiring in Jan' 2023 have now extended their move higher to 280bps since the September Copom decision.
  • Up today:
    • 1300BST/0800ET: Aug. National Unemployment Rate, est. 13.4%, prior 13.7%
    • 1830BST/1330ET: Sept. Federal Debt Total, prior 5.48t
  • Brazil's lower house floor vote on the court-ordered payments bill, known as precatorios, which includes changes in the rules governing the spending cap, will now take place today, speaker Arthur Lira said. (BBG)
  • Senate committee's final report recommends President Jair Bolsonaro face charges for crimes including charlatanism, malfeasance and crimes against humanity by a vote of 7 to 4. (BBG)
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