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Analysts Eye Powell's Comments Pointing To November Hold (2/2)


Some analyst takes on Powell's appearance Thursday:

  • BofA: "Powell delivered generally dovish remarks....Following the cautious guidance provided by Fed speakers over recent weeks, and reinforced [] by Chair Powell in his speech, we no longer expect the Fed to hike in its November meeting. Instead, we now expect the Fed to deliver a final 25bp hike in the December meeting, as we still believe that robust activity data will likely be enough to tilt the Fed towards an additional hike. However, we note there is a substantial risk that the Fed may have reached the peak of the hiking cycle. This risk could materialize in the recent string of stronger-than expected data were to fade, leaving room for a slowdown towards the end of the year as the impact of higher long-term interest rates and tighter financial conditions continues to sink in. A potential government shutdown is an additional risk."
  • Goldman Sachs: "Powell’s and other FOMC participants’ recent remarks are consistent with our expectation that the FOMC is likely to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its November meeting, and we continue to expect the federal funds rate to remain at its current level through 2024Q4."
  • JPMorgan: "Powell’s remarks sealed the case for no move at the November meeting, while keeping the option alive for hiking at subsequent meetings. ... Given that there will be little important “additional evidence” between now and the November 1 meeting it looks like rates will be unchanged after the upcoming meeting."
  • Rabobank: "In his prepared speech, Powell maintained a somewhat neutral stance...with less than two weeks to go before the next meeting, today’s neutral performance does not suggest that we are going to see a hike... But that option is still open for the December meeting. Nevertheless, we still expect the bond market to do the Fed’s work, making further policy rate hikes redundant. However, we continue to see upside risk to our baseline forecast. If economic data remain strong, sooner or later the FOMC will have to resume its hiking cycle."

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