Analysts On Jobs Report

The jobs report wasn’t strong enough to persuade those analysts below who had previously called for no further hikes from the BoC, although it does see acknowledgement that the path to moderation could be lumpy.

• BMO: Canada's job market has been following a sawtooth pattern this year, with a soft report generally followed by a snapback, and this was the month for a minor snapback. For the BoC, this report therefore likely doesn't move the needle much—it's not strong enough to prompt an immediate rethink on the pause, but it's also certainly not soft enough to rule out further hikes. The next decision will largely hinge on how the CPI fares in the next two readings.
• Desjardins: This report alone won’t make the BoC regret holding rates steady earlier this week. However, it does highlight that the economy hasn’t completely stalled. We continue to expect that the central bankers are done raising rates. But with progress towards rebalancing the economy slow, they won’t be signalling ‘mission accomplished’ anytime soon.
• RBC: Employment is still rising, but so is the u/e rate with job demand no longer strong enough to keep up with a rising supply of workers from surging population growth. The BoC will continue to watch wage growth (still well-above pre-pandemic levels) closely […] But the central bank's move to leave the overnight rate unchanged earlier this week was based on signs that the balance of labour supply and demand was improving - and the u/e rate holding steady after three months of increases is still likely consistent with that view for now.
• TD: Gov. Macklem spoke yesterday about the clear evidence that past interest rate hikes are working to slow the economy. While the evidence became a little less clear today, when we look under the surface, the story still holds. The number of unemployed workers has now grown by 137.6k over 2023. There are many ways the once high-flying labour market can come back down to earth. So far, it has been a smooth transition. But this will be no easy task, and we expect turbulence in the months ahead.