Another Disappointing Month As Fed Stays Hawkish & Russian Output Resilient

Oil has been trading in a very tight range today. WTI is currently up 0.3% after falling 0.7% on Monday. It is now around $75.90/bbl, close to its intraday high of $75.94 which followed a low of $75.55 earlier. Brent is trading around $82.60 and the USD index is up about 0.1%.

• Oil has been broadly range trading since December and that continued in February, although it is likely to be down again this month. The continued hawkish tone from the Fed and signs of persistent inflation pressures have weighed on crude, as the market remains concerned about the demand implications of further US tightening despite China’s reopening.
• Crude broke through both the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages in February and it remains below them. The outlook is currently neutral.
• Bank of America is the latest to revise down its 2023 crude forecasts following a disappointing start to the year and resilient Russian output. It now expects Brent to reach $88 down from $100. (Bloomberg)
• A number of second tier data releases are out in the US later today. There are the January trade balance and wholesale inventories, February consumer confidence, Chicago and Richmond indices, and December house prices. The API data on US crude stocks also print. The Fed’s Goolsbee speaks and a number of BoE members later.