Another Major Con->Lab By-Election Swing Shows Scale Of Challenge For PM

With results from local and mayoral elections across England and Wales set to filter through over the coming 24 hours, the most noteworthy result overnight came from a parliamentary by-election in the Blackpool South constituency in northern England. Labour won the seat from the Conservatives with a swing of 26%, the third-largest Conservative-to-Labour Swing in a by-election since 1945.

• It is not only the scale of the swing that indicates how low the Conservative vote has fallen, but the recent consistency in significant swings. Of the 10 largest Conservative-to-Labour by-election swings since 1945, five have taken place within the past 10 months.
• With counting set to continue into Saturday, the main result coming through today will be the Tees Valley mayoralty at around 1230BST. The mayoralty is held by Conservative peer Ben Houchen, but he faces a stiff challenge from Labour. His loss - following a landslide win in 2021 with 73% of the vote - would be another clear signal of Conservative struggles in the 'red wall' of former Labour seats in northern England won under former PM Boris Johnson in 2019.
• Even with major losses expected, it appears the chances of an immediate leadership challenge to PM Rishi Sunak may be waning. John Stevens at The Mirror posted earlier on X: "Andrea Jenkyns - the first Tory MP to publicly submit a letter of no confidence in Rishi Sunak - say it's "unlikely" her colleagues will follow her and trigger a leadership election."