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Anti-Inflation Shield Looking Less Likely to be Extended into 2023

POLAND
  • Markets re-open today after Tuesday’s closure due to the All Saints’ Day market holiday. Manufacturing PMI data is the focus, expected to slow to 42.6 from 43.0 previously.
  • The Polish defence minister has outlined plans to build a temporary barrier on the border with Russia. The land border covers around 210km and is with the Kaliningrad exclave, rather than mainland Russia.
  • Borys, head of the state fund PFR, outlined his expectations for several further 25bps rate hikes from the NBP, seeing the main rate reaching “around 7.50%”. Borys added that the government may not extend the anti-inflation shield in 2023, with the government forced to introduce greater fiscal discipline.
  • Expectations for an extension to the anti-inflation shield have waned in recent weeks, with the deputy finance minister last week claiming that the government are looking into alternatives, with the cost of the measure currently PLN 2.5bln per month.
  • Donald Tusk, leader of the opposition Civic Party, reached out to opposition party leaders in September, but they have been unable to agree on a plan to unite in opposition for 2023 elections against the government, according to Wyborcza.
  • Local press pores over Monday’s inflation release, with DGP writing that it will push the NBP to raise rates by 25bps in November, while Rzeczpospolita cites economist forecasts for inflation above 20% in February next year.
  • Rzeczpospolita writes that banks are unlikely to intensify their fight for client deposits, with rising cost bases prompting banks to become less generous on interest rates.
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