Free Trial

ANZ maintains view that "China's growth.......>

CHINA: ANZ maintains view that "China's growth will slow in H2 after the
outperformance in H1." ANZ suggests that "stricter regulations over
infrastructure and property investment may also weigh on the growth outlook.
Structural deleveraging, instead of broad-based deleveraging, will elevate
credit risks in some sectors in H2."
- ANZ look for "another 50bps PBOC RRR cut in Q4 2018. With structural
deleveraging now the policy focus, tightened controls over fund flows will focus
on specific sectors, including real estate and LGFVs."
- ANZ also expect that "bond issuance by local Chinese governments will likely
increase in H2 2018, even though they had targeted an unchanged deficit of
CNY830bn from 2017 in their general budget."
- ANZ highlight that "at this stage, there are no signs of outflow pressures
emerging, unlike in 2015 - something the authorities are keen to avoid. Should
trade tensions escalate, further bouts of CNY weakness are likely, especially if
they start to materially impact China's growth in H2 2018."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.