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April GDP Disappoints But Q2 Tracking Remains Solid

CANADA DATA
  • Real GDP was softer than expected in finalized April data at 0.0% M/M (advance and consensus 0.2), although followed a slightly upward revised March (0.1% in March).
  • Further, the advance May release came in on the strong side, rising 0.4% M/M versus some analysts looking for little change as a -0.4% fall in hours worked weighed.
  • Within the April details, there was solid strength in construction and real estate (0.4%, 0.5%) considering the stage of the cycle, the latter following the strong uptick off recent lows in home sales.
  • It leaves a 3M/3M rate of 1.9% annualized after 2.8% in Q1 (or 3.1% for the quarterly expenditure account that the BoC forecasts). The BoC look for only 1.0% in Q2 from its April MPR, due to be updated with July’s decision.
  • Market reaction, with GoCs rallying slightly more than Tsys, suggests some participants are fading the bounce in the May advance which was in part helped by a rebounding in federal government after strikes which will prove to be temporary.

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