Armenia/Azerbaijan Conflict Shows No Signs Of De-Escalation

The escalating conflict in the Caucuses between long-time adversaries Armenia and Azerbaijan shows no signs of de-escalation and, indeed, risks deteriorating into a much broader conflict outside of the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

• So far this morning, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said that 10 of his citizens have been killed by Armenian shelling.
• Armenia's defence ministry has said that it has 'no choice' but to use 'large calibre systems with more destructive force' in the face of what it calls Azeri aggression.
• While the conflict may appear self-contained, there is a risk that major regional and global powers are dragged into the fighting. Turkey is Azerbaijan's long-standing ally and has a particularly poor relationship with Armenia. Meanwhile, Russia and Armenia have a mutual defence pact in place and Moscow has troops stationed in Armenia although it should be noted that Russia also has relatively good relations with the Aliyev gov't and is likely to push for both sides to de-escalate the conflict.
• The number of fatalities on both sides varies from outlet to outlet, but if the current level of fighting continues then it stands to mirror or eclipse the number of casualties in the 'Four Day War' between the two countries in 2016.
• The Caucuses region serves as a major transit hub for hydrocarbons travelling from east to west, with pipelines including the vast Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil and Trans-Anatolian gas line criss-crossing the area. An outbreak of all-out war could present major risks to these lines that feed into southern Europe's hydrocarbon supply.