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RIKSBANK: - As a base case expect the next hike to be pushed back around a
quarter. However, we find it hard to see the Riksbank push back hikes further
than this and so there may be better risk/reward to position for a more hawkish
outcome. - We note that markets are probably positioned for an even more dovish
outlook, however, with hikes pushed back a quarter probably not enough to be
seen as a dovish surprise and may even see SEK rally a little. An unchanged rate
path would see SEK rally back towards the 200-dma and key resistance around
10.61. Hikes pushed towards the end of 2020 would see EURSEK likely dragged back
towards its recent highs with a target of 10.90 or above. (2/2)