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Attention on January Inflation Data Before Banxico

MEXICO
  • Headline CPI is expected to have risen to 7.91% in January from 7.82%, however remains below the 8.70% peak seen in September. The more significant metric for the central bank of core inflation is expected to drive the advance and remains a concern for the governing board. Lower non-core inflation should partially offset the advance.
    • Non-processed food prices rose in the first two weeks of January. They likely extended their moderate uptrend in the following two weeks, bolstered by domestic supply shocks and mounting costs. Core services inflation likely rose from 5.19%.
    • Energy and regulated inflation should decline from 3.66% in December. Gasoline prices are rising more slowly than in previous months. Propane prices sharply increased. Base effects account for the lower result.
    • Worth noting the board will have had this information before making their decision on rates which is due later today.
  • Data is due at 1200GMT/0700ET/0600 Local:
    • Jan. CPI M/m, est. 0.67%, prior 0.38%
    • Jan. CPI Y/y, est. 7.91%, prior 7.82%
    • Jan. CPI Core M/m, est. 0.70%, prior 0.65%
    • Jan. CPI Core Y/y, est. 8.43%, prior 8.35%
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