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Attention remains on the FOMC

  • A better volume session for EGBs and Bund in early trade.
  • Bund has fully reversed yesterday's gains that were led by the US CPI miss.
  • Germany announced that they plan to issue a record EU539bn in Federal debt in 2023, an increase from EU449bn in 2022.
  • This has kept futures under pressure.
  • Peripheral spread are mostly wider, with Italy in the lead by 2.6bps.
  • Gilt trade in the red but outperforms EGB futures following the UK CPI coming 2 tenth below expectations.
  • US Treasuries are holding onto gains, and most notable price action has been in the Tnote/Bund spread.
  • Tnote/Bund spread is through the October low, tightest since 22ns June now.
  • Some desk will look at 150.00bps next, but main support will be at the June low, 147.68, which is also the lowest print in 2 years (25/12/20).
  • Looking ahead, there's no notable data, and all the attention will be on the FOMC and presser, when a 50bps hike is expected.

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