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AU Remains The Outlier In The $-Bloc Ahead Of Q3 CPI

STIR

Market expectations for terminal interest rates in the $-bloc have been little changed over recent days, with Australia the only market with a full 25bp hike priced.

  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer for ’24 meetings today, with Sep-Dec’24 leading.
  • A 44% chance of a 25bp hike in November is priced ahead of today's Q3 CPI.
  • Terminal rate expectations and the cumulative tightening currently stand at: 5.43%, +9bps (FOMC); 5.14%, +14bps (BOC); 4.35%, +28bps (RBA); and 5.60%, +10bps (RBNZ).

Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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