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AUD/EUR: Recovering Off YTD Lows

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AUD/EUR was pressured last week, printing its lowest level since early 2022. The pair found support below $0.62 rising ~1% off cycle lows.

  • The pair fell ~6% from 2023 highs seen in late January, rate differentials observed via 2 Year swap rates have narrowed from -80bps to -30bps.
  • In the rates space ECB terminal rates pricing has fallen in OIS markets, in lieu of the fallout from the collapse of SVB and concerns re the US banking sector, from 3.9% to ~3.5% over the last week. RBA dated futures all but priced out any further rate hikes, the terminal rate is holding steady at ~3.6% through 2023.
  • Technically the pair remains in a downtrend. Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA at $0.6311 to turn the tide. Bears look to target the 2021 low at $0.6084.

Fig 1: AUD/EUR Daily Spot, EMAs

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AUD/EUR was pressured last week, printing its lowest level since early 2022. The pair found support below $0.62 rising ~1% off cycle lows.

  • The pair fell ~6% from 2023 highs seen in late January, rate differentials observed via 2 Year swap rates have narrowed from -80bps to -30bps.
  • In the rates space ECB terminal rates pricing has fallen in OIS markets, in lieu of the fallout from the collapse of SVB and concerns re the US banking sector, from 3.9% to ~3.5% over the last week. RBA dated futures all but priced out any further rate hikes, the terminal rate is holding steady at ~3.6% through 2023.
  • Technically the pair remains in a downtrend. Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA at $0.6311 to turn the tide. Bears look to target the 2021 low at $0.6084.

Fig 1: AUD/EUR Daily Spot, EMAs

Keep reading...Show less