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AUD/NZD Edges Lower Following AU CPI, Eyes 1.0800

NZD
  • AUD/NZD finished Wednesday's session down 0.18% at 1.0810. The cross headed lower following stronger-than-expected AU inflation figures, which was at odds at the recent dovish tone from the RBA. The 14-day RSI was slightly lower at 32.5, while the MACD is showing decreasing red bars.
  • Data and central bank policy has been mixed in the region, a less hawkish than expected RBA has been met with stronger-than-expected CPI, while a hawkish RBNZ has been met with weak business survey data, later today we have the NZ budget with eyes on any large stimulus which could lead to higher inflation.
  • Looking at technicals, initial support is 1.0800 (round number) a break below here would open a retest of 1.0762 (Apr 19 low), initial resistance is 1.0832 (200-day EMA), above here 1.0852 (100-day EMA)
  • The AU-NZ 2Y swap is 7bps higher at -83.50bps.
  • Option expiries: 1.0950 ($246.58m), 1.075 (202.33m) May 30, 1.126 ($373.71m) May 30, upcoming notable strikes include 1.0850 ($200m) May 31, 1.0725 ($200m)
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