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Bearish Focus

AUSSIE-KIWI: AUD/NZD trades unchanged at NZ$1.0843 last, after a look below its
200-DMA in early Asia-Pacific trade. The rate moved to unchanged levels on the
back of the latest RBA MonPol decision which saw the Bank leave its cash rate
unchanged, while it upgraded its GDP growth outlook and trimmed its longer run
unemployment outlook (highlighting the contrast between the two Antipodean
Reserve Banks, with the RBNZ set to reiterate that the next move in its OCR
could be up or down later this week), although it stressed that any uptick in
inflation (which it now expects to be a "bit" above 2.25% in 2020), will be
- A concerted break lower, through NZ$1.0800, would open up the October 23 low
of NZ$1.0777. Conversely, bulls look for a leg through the November 01 high at
NZ$1.0878 to open up the 50-DMA at NZ$1.0892, followed by the 100-DMA at
- Participants will focus on the regional central banks this week, with the RBNZ
MonPol decision due within the next 48 hours & RBA SoMP due Friday, while NZ
labour market data & inflation expectations add to the regional event risk.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |