AUD/NZD trickling lower in the wake.....>

AUSSIE-KIWI: AUD/NZD trickling lower in the wake of the soft Australian retail

sales data released earlier today.

- Rate last NZ$1.0716, 30 pips or so lower on the day, and below the 50-DMA at

NZ$1.0724.

- Last week's low has limited the losses thus far, but a break below here would

open the 23.6% retracement of the YtD range at NZ$1.0704 and the psychological

NZ$1.0700.

- Positioning is likely helping the move. Last week's CFTC CoT report continued

to point to a large NZD short position (~55% of the open interest in futures on

the CME), little moved from the shortest position seen over the last 12 months

vs. a net short ~26% of OI in AUD futures, which has retraced from the recent

extremes.

- Key regional risk events this week include the RBA MonPol decision & NZ labour

market data.