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Ending QE Early Would Be Hawkish... Right?


Bund Put Spread Buyer


Taking Profit on 1Wk Bet


10Y Vol For Sale


ING Now Sees March Hike, Keeps At Least 4 In 2022

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FOREX: AUD on track to test YTD lows on worst CPI print since 2016
-AUD is comfortably the poorest performer in G10 Wednesday as Q1 CPI fell well
below expectations. The Q/Q came in flat at 0% and Y/Y at just 1.3% - both 0.2
percentage points below expectations. In response, AUD fell sharply, bottoming
out at $0.7027 and prompting bears to shift targets to the March lows of $0.7003
and the year's lowest levels of $0.6982 (excepting the flash crash lows of
$0.6741 printed Jan3). AUD implied vols have rallied in sympathy, with the 1m
measure above 7.5 points for the first time since late March.
-EUR came under pressure as Germany's IFO data disappointed, but markets clearly
remain happy to buy dips in EUR/USD following the abrupt sell-off yesterday.
Given the timing of yesterday's USD rally alongside strong US earnings, today's
reports may come under increased scrutiny. CHF is outperforming somewhat, with
the currency bouncing off multi-month lows printed yesterday.
-Data is again light, with the Bank of Canada rate decision the focus at
1500BST. Earnings from Boeing, Caterpillar, Facebook, Microsoft, Visa and AT&T
are due (among others).
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