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AUD/USD Falters On Slumping Commodities

AUD

AUD/USD lost over 1.1% for Thursday's session, the third worst performer in the G10 space, as safe havens outperformed and commodity FX faltered. The pair got sub 0.6700 in US trade, but was supported around the 0.6690 region. We currently track slightly higher, just above 0.6700.

  • Support at 0.6716, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. The 20-day EMA intersects at 0.6705 while key support lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low. Resistance lies above 0.6800 (0.6818 was the May 10 high).
  • The Bloomberg aggregate commodity index faltered, falling 1.55% for Thursday's session, the third straight fall. The base metals sub index was worse, losing nearly 3%. The chart below overlays AUD/USD against the base metals index.
  • Iron ore is back to $98.50/ton, amid renewed China demand concerns. Yesterday's China inflation data didn't suggest a robust demand backdrop. We also had Apr aggregate credit figures, which printed below expectations.
  • The local data calendar is quiet today, but Australia's trade minister is in China meeting with Commerce minister Wang Wentao, with the aim of improving trade ties.

Fig 1: AUD/USD Versus Base Metals Index


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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