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AUD/USD Just Below 50-day EMA

AUD

AUD/USD currently tracks in the 0.6725/30 region, around closing levels from Tuesday in NY. We sit just shy of the 50-day EMA at 0.6735. The currency rose just under 0.4% against the USD for the session, around mid range from a G10 standpoint. We did get near 0.6750 post the Asia close, as broader USD sentiment faltered but lost momentum thereafter. Recent highs around 0.6800 remain intact. On the downside, 0.6620 the April 10 low, should provide support.

  • The local data calendar has the Westpac Leading index for March on tap today (prior read was -0.06%).
  • Tuesday cross asset signals were mixed, with commodities supportive (+1.80% for the Bloomberg base metals index, +0.66% for the aggregate). Copper and iron ore tracked higher, albeit with iron ore not too far off recent lows ($118/ton). Some positive carry over from China's Q1 GDP beat likely helping at the margins.
  • US equities were around flat, but recovered into the close. The VIX held around recent lows, closing under 17%.
  • Yield differentials with the US continue to track recent ranges. Local AU banks are highlighting the live nature of next month's RBA meeting post the minutes yesterday, albeit still data dependent. Next week's Q1 CPI print, out on Wednesday, will be important from this standpoint.

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