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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
China's August trade data came out relatively close to market expectations. Exports were -8.8% y/y (forecast at -9.0%, -14.5% prior). Imports were slightly better than expected at -7.3% y/y (forecast -9.0%, prior -12.4%). This left trade surplus slightly below estimates, coming in at $68.36bn ($73.90bn forecast and $80.60bn prior).
- Export growth is above recent lows, but faces an uncertain outlook. There are signs of a slightly better US backdrop, whilst there are tentative signs of better export momentum in countries like South Korea and Taiwan, albeit coming from a low base.
- The CNY NEER in also above its recent trough in y/y terms, see the chart below. Other factors are also in play in terms of wide policy rate differentials with the US etc.
Fig 1: China Exports Y/Y & CNY NEER Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- On the import side, the slightly better than expected result will be welcomed, but the market will want to see other stronger signs of improving domestic demand to turn more constructive on the outlook.
- Commodity imports continued to post impressive y/y gains, but base effects from 2022 is certainly helping such trends.
- For the first 8 months of this year, coal imports are 82% higher. Oil is 14.7% higher for the same period.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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