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AUSTRIA: Chancellor Sets 29 Sep As Federal Election Day

AUSTRIA
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Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer has confirmed that the country's federal election will take place on 29 September. Amid a slew of snap elections in Europe, the Austrian federal election was clearly signposed, with the National Council's term coming to an end after five years following the previous election on 29 Sep 2019. The incumbent coalition between Nehammer's centre-right Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and the environmentalist Greens is likely to lose its majority. 

  • Opinion polling shows the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party (FPÖ) retaining a sizeable lead. Indeed, the 9 June European Parliament elections gave the party a boost as it took first place, winning six MEP's to the five each for the ÖVP and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ). 
  • Should the final vote shares prove similar to current polling, the ÖVP's decision on coalition partners will prove crucial. It could either work as the junior partner to the FPÖ. Alternatively, it could seek a 'grand coalition' with the SPÖ and perhaps the Greens or liberal NEOS if required to form a majority. 
  • An unexpected influence could come from minor parties. The satirical BIER (Beer Party) is consistently above the 4% electoral threshold in nationwide polling, while the far-left Communist Party (KPÖ) hovers just around the cut-off. If both these parties win seats in the National Council, it will further dilute the main parties seat totals making coalition formation tougher. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average

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Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer has confirmed that the country's federal election will take place on 29 September. Amid a slew of snap elections in Europe, the Austrian federal election was clearly signposed, with the National Council's term coming to an end after five years following the previous election on 29 Sep 2019. The incumbent coalition between Nehammer's centre-right Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) and the environmentalist Greens is likely to lose its majority. 

  • Opinion polling shows the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party (FPÖ) retaining a sizeable lead. Indeed, the 9 June European Parliament elections gave the party a boost as it took first place, winning six MEP's to the five each for the ÖVP and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ). 
  • Should the final vote shares prove similar to current polling, the ÖVP's decision on coalition partners will prove crucial. It could either work as the junior partner to the FPÖ. Alternatively, it could seek a 'grand coalition' with the SPÖ and perhaps the Greens or liberal NEOS if required to form a majority. 
  • An unexpected influence could come from minor parties. The satirical BIER (Beer Party) is consistently above the 4% electoral threshold in nationwide polling, while the far-left Communist Party (KPÖ) hovers just around the cut-off. If both these parties win seats in the National Council, it will further dilute the main parties seat totals making coalition formation tougher. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average

Keep reading...Show less