Baht Defies Portfolio Outflows, Hitting Fresh Highs Since March 2022

USD/THB has hit fresh last lows back to early March last year, tracking close to 32.60 currently. This is line with broader USD losses in the G10 space and some catch up from losses post the Friday onshore close. March 2022 lows in the pair sit close to 32.40, but longer term bulls will target February lows closer to 32.00. Recent resistance has been between 33.00/33.20 in the pair.

• This comes after Friday's session gains of nearly 0.70%, which was all the more impressive given chunky outflows from Thai equities and bonds on Friday's session, around $500mn, although the majority of this was from the bond side.
• FX reserve data from Friday also showed a continued recovery in FX reserves (headline to $224bn versus a mid Oct low of sub $200bn), while a weaker USD is clearly playing a part in this trend, it does point to a less adverse BoP backdrop.
• Baht comfortably remains the best performer in Asian FX YTD, +6%, IDR the next best at +3.27%.
• The BoT decision on Wednesday is the main focus point this week, with +25bps expected. Besides the broader policy outlook, BoT commentary around recent baht strength will also be watched for.