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Breaches Key Short-Term Support


Late SOFR/Treasury Option Trade

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Spot USD/THB surged to its best levels since 2006 on Thursday, as the Asian Development Bank cut its 2022 growth forecast for Thailand but marked the inflation projection higher. Against this backdrop, the BoT's status as one of the final dovish holdouts in emerging Asia helped keep the baht under pressure.

  • Kasikornbank revised its USD/THB forecast for year-end to THB35.00 from THB33.50, noting that the adjustment was motivated by the Fed's more hawkish policy stance.
  • Political matters may be adding to the baht's weakness, with the censure debate against PM Prayuth & 10 other ministers due to wrap up with a no-confidence vote on Saturday.
  • The baht is on track to finish the week as the worst performer in emerging Asia, losing close to 0.5% to the U.S. dollar.
  • Spot USD/THB last seen -0.125 at THB36.790 as overnight dollar weakness provides some reprieve to the baht. Bears eye Jul 11 low of THB35.882 for initial support, while bulls look for a rally above yesterday's high of THB36.945 before targeting Sep 19, 2006 high of THB37.951.
  • BoT Gov Sethaput will speak to the press this morning. He may discuss interest rates and FX policies.
  • Thailand's customs trade data is expected to be published in the coming days.

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