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Bailey Defends Modelled Path for Inflation

BOE

Q: MPC says 50/50 chance inflation is above target until 2026, is that good performance?

  • A: On the mean case - more persistence than the model suggest with inflation back to target towards end of next year. Lots of debate about how quickly to get inflation back to target. Path we are on is not unreasonable given shocks we have had. Think have had appropriate path. There is no bias in our setting of rates.
  • Ramsden: We and global econ have been hit by two 1 in 100 year shocks in quick succession. Have had very significant impact on prices and price setting. Started putting up rates in Dec 2021 when we were still trying to make sense of Omicron. The shocks from the war in Ukraine since then. Re food prices - that is due to the war.
  • Broadbent: It's not 50/50 above target until 2026, its until beginning of 2025.
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