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Balder; Nordic Bank Payouts... Confidence In

REAL ESTATE

Balder (BALDB SS) follow up as the cash curve (BBB-rated) has sold off a few basis points since our earlier comment (now 1-2bp lower on the day). Credit highlights from recent Nordic bank results:


  • Nordea non-performing loans (NPLs) were just 70bp of lending at Dec-23 (from 63bp at Sep-23), Handelsbanken 24bp (from 23bp), Swedbank 43bp (from 35bp), DNB 117bp (from 110bp) and SEB 37bp (from 27bp). So still, in absolute terms, very low levels and only minor deteriorations from three months earlier.
  • As an indication of mgmt confidence, three of the Nordic majors upgraded equity payouts: SEB – special dividend and buyback. SHBA - special dividend. Nordea – implied higher equity payout ratio.
  • Whilst none of this is categoric, the Nordic banks are very tightly regulated and these latter moves would not be countenanced by regulators which were meaningfully fearful about local real estate market delinquencies.
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