*** Bank desk views on the upcoming RBNZ.......>

RBNZ: *** Bank desk views on the upcoming RBNZ MonPol decision (1/2):

- ANZ: We exp. that while the RBNZ's Governor and mandate have changed, the

broad story will be the same. Given the balance of risks, we expect the RBNZ

will retain a cautious approach, with the policy outlook little changed. A clear

message that acknowledges recent developments, but is consistent with a

gradually evolving policy outlook will be the aim. The RBNZ will remain cautious

until it sees a definitive broadening in inflationary pressures, with the OCR to

remain on hold for some time yet. We continue to pencil in Aug '19 for the first

hike.

- ASB: We expect the RBNZ to retain a neutral stance. Developments since the

March OCR Review tilt marginally towards more caution over how long it will take

to sustain inflation comfortably around the 2% inflation target mid-point. It is

possible that the RBNZ defers slightly the timing of its forecast OCR increases.

But recent developments are well within the range of shifts the RBNZ has

absorbed without tinkering with its OCR view. Events all still point

convincingly to the OCR remaining low until at least the second half of 2019.