*** Bank desk views on the upcoming RBNZ.......>

RBNZ: *** Bank desk views on the upcoming RBNZ MonPol decision (2/2):

- BNZ: Those looking for a radical shift in the stance of the RBNZ thanks to the

installation of a new governor and a new Policy Targets Agreement will be

disappointed. Yes, there will be subtle nuances and, it goes without saying that

Adrian Orr's presentation style in the post MPS news conference will be more

dynamic than his predecessor. But a change in direction? No! We've formally got

Feb '19 in our forecast track re: a hike, but, realistically, we are

equivocating between Feb & May. On this basis, and, given what we think the RBNZ

will say, we believe minimal market reaction will be the order of the day.

- Westpac: We don't expect a change in the OCR outlook. But if there is a

change, it will be in the direction of slightly earlier hikes than previously

signalled. The wording of the MPS and the press release will be different, but

markets shouldn't necessarily take that as a signal - it might just reflect the

new Governor's communication style. The RBNZ's new labour market directives

probably won't cause a change in the OCR outlook this time. However, the labour

market target might matter at other points in time.