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NEW ZEALAND: Bank desk views on today's NZIER QSBO:
- ANZ: Pessimism is flowing through into firm decisions, although investment and
hiring intentions are generally still positive. Today's data are consistent with
a softening in annual GDP growth - challenging the RBNZ's outlook. We continue
to believe the next OCR move is more likely to be a cut.
- ASB: Details were softer than we exp. & point to a deceleration in GDP growth
over H218. However, forward-looking indicators remained relatively upbeat.
- BNZ: There was confirmation that the negativity in biz sentiment is not being
driven primarily by exp. of weakening demand. Rather a combo of rising input
costs & frustration with both gov't policy & the inability to find staff, that
is pressuring conf. Therefore one would expect biz sentiment to be a less
effective indicator of activity than might have been the case in the past.
- Westpac: The details were somewhat mixed. Pricing intentions remain relatively
stable after tracking higher over the last couple of years as firms remain
circumspect about their ability to pass on higher costs. Today's data will have
done little to dissuade the RBNZ of the risk surrounding the area.