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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence


Bank of America Research note that "while aggregates show the 2021 EGB supply will likely be similar to 2020, compositional effects may drive relative value changes. This is especially true for Germany, the Netherlands and France. While the Dutch and German central banks may be able to control the impact by increasing the average maturity of their government bond purchases, the same cannot be said for the others. In addition, diluted demand for safer EUR-denominated fixed income from bigger and deeper common debt markets (EU issuance) may chip away some of the collateral premium priced into core/semi-core debt. In this respect, unless we see an unprecedented further compression in EGB credit spreads, we see attractive risk-reward in a 2s10s OAT spread steepener. This trade is also correlated with sudden risk-off market moves, which cannot be ruled out given the extent and length of the current market run (especially in the US). Adjustments to risk-on swings on the other hand tend to be more gradual and controlled."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |