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BanRep Minutes Due After Close

COLOMBIA
  • As a reminder, the Colombian central bank hiked rates by 150bps to 9.00% on Friday, in line with the vast majority of surveyed estimates prior to the release. The decision was not unanimous, with one out of seven directors favouring a softer 100bp hike.
    • In a short statement, the central bank acknowledged rising inflation and expectations, while noting that excess demand remains and that economic activity has continued on a strong footing. With that said, the board raised their 2022 growth estimate from 6.3% to 6.9%.
  • After today’s close, BanRep will release the minutes for the July meeting.
  • Goldman Sachs expect the minutes to show concern about the recent inflation dynamics and the overall balance of risks, including the deterioration of the inflation expectations over the relevant policy horizon. Given that In the post-meeting statement, the MPC revised the 2022 GDP growth forecast to 6.9% and noted that the economy is operating with excess capacity, GS will be looking for comments by the MPC directors highlighting concerns over demand pull pressures for inflation.
  • GS also expect a discussion on the current stage of the tightening cycle and whether the policy rate is approaching its terminal level in this cycle. Furthermore, they expect the central bank to shed some light on the expected path for monetary policy, and to outline the set of conditions that might drive the policy rate further into restrictive territory.
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