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Banxico Expected To Hold This Week, Some Calling For Start Of Monetary Easing

MEXICO
  • The majority of surveyed analysts are expecting another unchanged decision from the Banxico committee this week, leaving the policy rate at 11.25%. However, three analysts within the Bloomberg survey, and another seen by MNI, are expecting a 25bp rate cut on Thursday.
  • It is worth noting that January CPI data will precede the release, where annual headline and core CPI are expected to ease from the mid-Jan reading to 4.88% and 4.72% respectively. CitiBanamex’s latest survey of economists will be released on Tuesday.
  • The prevailing consensus view is well summarised by JP Morgan, who expect Banxico to maintain a similar approach to December, playing a balancing act between (1) an emphasis on the progress in the disinflation process and more encouraging signs of core inflation dynamics and (2) a more cautious stance on the deterioration on non-core inflation. JPM believe the Board will adjust its guidance, probably removing the “maintain the policy rate at the same level for some time” and adding “the Board is assessing the appropriate time to start reducing the tight policy stance.” For this, the Board will have to fine-tune its balance of risks to inflation and possibly add downside risks to economic activity.
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