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Free AccessBanxico Minutes Support March Rate Cut, Q4 Current Account Due
- Yesterday’s minutes to the Feb 8 Banxico meeting contained no real surprises and seemed to suggest that all members are open to a rate cut at the next MPC meeting in March. Three members seem more willing to cut, while two remain more cautious due to the previous rebound in non-core inflation. However, yesterday’s lower-than-expected half month CPI inflation data may have eased those concerns.
- In Goldman Sachs view, the minutes reinforced a data dependent approach, but given that the recent shock to non-core prices is now mean-reverting and the policy stance is very tight, they expect the first rate cut in March (-25bp) and the policy rate to reach 9.00% by end-2024. Meanwhile, JP Morgan also continue to expect a 25bp cut in March, probably in a non-unanimous decision of 4-1. They expect a gradual easing cycle, with a pause in June, reaching 9.75% by year-end.
- Later today, Banxico will publish Q4 current account data at 1500GMT(1000ET), with analysts expecting a $5bn surplus, up from a $2.6bn surplus in Q3.
- 4Q Current Account Balance, est. $5bn, prior $2.63bn
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.