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Barclays And BMO Near Consensus For Core CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Both Barclays and BMO see core CPI in October at 4.3% Y/Y, in line with consensus even if monthly rates can be split after rounding.

  • Barclays expects "firm prints in shelter and used car prices to boost the monthly increase in core inflation" to 0.3% M/M, technically 0.1pp lower than consensus.
  • Solid increases in energy should more than offset some moderation in food inflation and see headline up 0.6% M/M and 5.9% Y/Y.
  • BMO meanwhile sees core at 0.4% M/M on the same story of strength in used car prices and rents, as per consensus.
  • They see core inflation testing "5% in early 2022 as year-ago comparisons are unfriendly and supply shortages are lingering".
  • Headline CPI is seen 0.1pp higher than consensus at 0.7% M/M and 6.0% Y/Y after a jump in pump prices.
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