FRANCE
France's prime ministerial carousel continued spinning overnight with former foreign minister and the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier the latest name to be posited as a potential occupant of Matignon. An announcement on Barnier, from the conservative Les Republicains (LR), has been trailed for today (5 Sep). However, this should be taken with some caution, given that rumours of announcements were also in place for Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Like the two other names that have circulated - former Socialist Party (PS) PM Bernard Cazeneuve and LR President of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand - it is unclear if Barnier would garner requisite support to avoid a censure vote in the National Assembly.
- Earlier, Deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy from the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) talked down the prospect of a Barnier gov't, calling him a 'political fossil'.
- The inability of President Emmanuel Macron to find an acceptable moderate candidate, and his refusal to appoint a PM from the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) has fuelled frustration across the political spectrum.
- Former PM Edouard Philippe's declaration of his intention to run for the presidency has only increased the pressure on Macron. Some have seen the announcement from Macron's former protege as the opening salvo to force the incumbent from the Elysee Palace amid political paralysis.
- Political betting markets show a small but increasing implied probability that Macron is out as president this year. Data from Polymarket shows a 9% implied probability of him leaving the Elysee in 2024.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Macron Out as President in 2024, %
Source: Polymarket
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