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BAX Futures Hold A Modest Rally With CAD CPI Digested

CANADA
  • BAX futures have drifted higher again in recent hours but remain off post-CPI highs. Latest momentum behind core measures offered at least a step in the right direction for the BoC even if three-month run rates are still in the 3.5-4% range it noted when hiking earlier this month.
  • The day’s rally is largest from the front Sep’23 through to Mar’24 (+3.5-4 ticks), fading further out with the Dec’24 more notably underperforming with unchanged on the day.
  • It means almost no change in the U3/Z3 time spread at +0.05, still only a little off last week’s recent highs, whilst the U3/Z4 narrows to -0.915 which aside from high -0.8s last week is close to the least inverted for that particular segment of the curve seen this year.
  • Meanwhile in the much nearer-term, OIS shows only a small dip in July hike expectations on the day, at +16bps vs +17bps prior to the data.

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