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BAX Futures Steepen With Payrolls Ahead Of BoC

CANADA
  • The front BAX future holds at levels it settled once payrolls had been digested an hour or so after the release, but later dated contracts have pushed nearer post data lows in a sell-off about half the size of SOFR counterparts.
  • It leaves the Jun’23 -0.035, Dec’23 -0.085 and Jun’24 -0.11, with the BAM3/Z3 spread of 0.13 pushing back above recent highs from the end of last week/early this week for highs since Mar 2022.
  • The steepening in the rate path comes as markets look to next week’s BoC decision. Whilst OIS odds are increasing but still only about 1/3-1/2 priced for a 25bp hike on Wed, some analysts have opted for a 25bp hike (TD looks for back-to-back, Scotia noted “at least” 25bp required after GDP). A few others we’ve seen stick with no change next week but a July hike more likely (Desjardins, RBC).

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