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BAX Yields See Modest Retracement As Employment Eyed

CANADA
  • BAX implied yields have nudged lower today (BAZ2 -1.5bps, BAZ3 -4bps) after surging earlier in the week in a pattern seen in FI markets more generally.
  • Peak yields touch 4% in the Dec’22 contract, roughly implying a policy rate getting towards 3.5% from the current 2.5%, with most of that being met by the 65bps of hikes priced in OIS for the Sep decision, before 66bps of inversion in BAX yields through BAZ2/BAZ3.
  • Focus is firmly on both US and Canadian employment reports for July tomorrow.

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