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BBVA on BCRP: Maintains Course With 50bp Hike

PERU
  • The BCRP argued that the higher inflation observed in October is a result of transitory supply factors such as the increase in the international price of food inputs and fuels, coupled with a higher exchange rate.
  • BBVA Research considers that there is room to continue adjusting the monetary policy position, but the pace of adjustment could moderate going forward.
  • The November release contains two things that we highlight. First, one that seems to suggest a change in the inflation forecast, now being considered something of greater persistence, since last month it was stated that the inflation would return to the target range "in the next twelve months" (we understand that at some point in the next twelve months), while now it is stated that it will be "in the second half of next year" (thus emphasizing the last part of the horizon before or even after). Greater persistence would require probably from further monetary tightening.
  • Second, the improvement in the indicators of expectations about the economy, which together with a growth in activity that according to our forecasts would have been between 11.0% and 11.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2021 (thus reaching a level 1.5% higher than the same quarter of 2019), seem to give space to continue to tend to normalize the monetary position.
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