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ARGENTINA: BBVA Says Worst Of Crisis Over, Strong Rebound In GDP Next Year

ARGENTINA
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  • BBVA says that the economic recovery, within a framework of fiscal balance and monetary discipline, shows that the worst of the crisis is over. Society maintains its support for the government, giving it room to address the challenges of fiscal balance sustainability and FX market liberalisation.
  • The fiscal balance will end this year in equilibrium after 15 years of deficit. The aggressive expenditure adjustment will enable a primary fiscal surplus of 1.7% of GDP, despite the contraction in revenues caused by declining economic activity. In 2025, BBVA expects the Treasury to renew its commitment with the goal of zero fiscal deficit. This will be aided by a recovery in growth, with GDP rising by up to 5.5% in 2025, driven by private consumption and investment.
  • Meanwhile, BBVA expects the disinflation process, defined by monetary stringency and a persistent crawling peg of the currency, to continue, with inflation settling around 35% next year and risks of a lower figure. They anticipate a gradual normalisation of the exchange rate market during 2025.
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  • BBVA says that the economic recovery, within a framework of fiscal balance and monetary discipline, shows that the worst of the crisis is over. Society maintains its support for the government, giving it room to address the challenges of fiscal balance sustainability and FX market liberalisation.
  • The fiscal balance will end this year in equilibrium after 15 years of deficit. The aggressive expenditure adjustment will enable a primary fiscal surplus of 1.7% of GDP, despite the contraction in revenues caused by declining economic activity. In 2025, BBVA expects the Treasury to renew its commitment with the goal of zero fiscal deficit. This will be aided by a recovery in growth, with GDP rising by up to 5.5% in 2025, driven by private consumption and investment.
  • Meanwhile, BBVA expects the disinflation process, defined by monetary stringency and a persistent crawling peg of the currency, to continue, with inflation settling around 35% next year and risks of a lower figure. They anticipate a gradual normalisation of the exchange rate market during 2025.