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BCCh Economist Survey Sees Rates Unchanged At April Meeting

CHILE
  • Economists in Chile are forecasting the key rate to be left on hold at the BCCh’s next meeting on April 04 and then to be cut by 25bps to 11.00% at the following meeting, then falling to 10.00% in five months.
  • Within the central bank’s monthly survey, the 2023 year-end rate forecast was raised to 7.50% vs prior estimate of 7.00%.
  • On inflation, consumer prices are expected to rise 0.4% m/m in February, with 2023 year-end inflation projected at 5.3% vs 5.0% last survey. 2024 year-end inflation was held at 3.3% and all GDP projections were held steady compared to the January survey.
  • Regarding the BCCh minutes, despite one Board member discussing a small cut as a valid option citing CLP appreciation helping the downward trend for inflation, it was deemed not enough information was presently available. Therefore all five Board members agreed that there was no reason to believe that the convergence of inflation to the 3% target was consolidated, keeping “the only plausible option was to keep the MPR at 11.25%.”
  • A very light docket next week, with just the BCCh traders survey scheduled for Tuesday.
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