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BCRP Decision This Week, JPMorgan Expecting Terminal Rate of 3.5%

PERU
  • The majority of analysts believe the BCRP will continue with its easing cycle by delivering another 25bp reference rate cut to 7.00%. However, the substantial downside surprise in the latest inflation data has prompted one analyst to forecast a bolder 50bp rate cut. This should keep market participants alert for any signal of increasing the easing pace going forward.
  • JPMorgan have noted that they expect the BCRP to ease monetary conditions again, by 25bp, to 7.0%. The deflation observed in October and stagnant activity momentum amid a negative output gap are conditions expected to dominate on the tighter external monetary conditions. Ahead, the policy rate is forecasted to converge to 6.75% by year-end, while the terminal rate for the cycle is projected at 3.5%.
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