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BCRP Leaves Reference Rate Unchanged At 7.75% With Minor Hawkish Tweaks

PERU
  • Peru’s central bank board decided to keep the key rate on hold at 7.75%. In a somewhat hawkish development and in acknowledgement of the slow pace of disinflation, the BCRP now see headline inflation “near the target range at the end of the year”. This compares to the May statement where annual CPI was expected to return to the target range by Q4, 2023.
  • The statement reaffirmed that the latest decision does not necessarily imply an end to the tightening cycle and that future rate adjustments will be conditional on new information about inflation and its determinants.
  • The only other notable adjustment within the statement was an acknowledgement that the leading and expectations indicators for economic activity in May show a recovery compared to the previous month. However, the board maintained that the majority of these indicators are persisting in pessimistic territory.
  • With several analysts forecasting the potential for rate cuts in early Q3 of this year, the shift in the inflation outlook may support the calls for a longer pause throughout the majority of 2023.
  • Link to statement: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Monetary-Policy/I...

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