MNI BRIEF: China Visitor Mobile Payments Surge in H1

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 26

MNI BRIEF: Foreign Firms Content In China

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Inflation Expectations Steady- TEBA

MNI China Press Digest July 26: Deposit Rates, Fiscal, PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY299.05 Bln via OMO Fri

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 589; OIL RIGS 482; GAS RIGS 101

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL JUL INDEX 66.4

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE Short APF Operation on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

BCRP Review - Analyst Views

PERU
  • *BBVA: Base scenario continues to be that the monetary pause will continue in the coming months before the decline in inflation will be clearer in the second half of the year. At that point a gradual process of normalization can begin, perhaps initially timid.
    • The space for monetary normalization process to start this year will also depend on what the Federal Reserve do. If it proves to be more aggressive than expected in the coming months, the BCRP’s space to manoeuvre will decrease.
  • *Goldman Sachs: Except for an incremental deterioration of the political and social backdrop that generates a negative shock to the capital account and the PEN, the MPC will maintain a hold-and-monitor stance coupled with vigilant guidance, especially if the inflation dynamics after March conform to the central bank staff’s projections.
    • GS will be on the lookout for updated guidance on the path for monetary policy (especially regarding the overall policy tone metric), inflation, and activity in the March Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) to be released at the end of the month. Overall, GS anticipate that the MPC will be patient and will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance at least through the start of 2H2023.
  • *JPMorgan: In terms of the policy rate path ahead, JPM expect the interest rate stable through the end of 2Q23. By then, the pre-conditions required to reduce the real ex-ante rate could be fulfilled, offering the BCRP the possibility to ease monetary conditions by June (-50bp). The policy rate is expected to converge to 5.5% by December 2023, and 4.0% by 2Q24.
  • *Pantheon think the BCRP will keep the main rate on hold in Q2, before cutting gradually to 6.0% by year-end. But upside risks to rates will persist in the near term, including elevated political risk, bad weather, and deteriorating global conditions.
EM BulletCentral Bank of Peru - ReviewHomepageEM Central Bank ReviewLatAm Bank - ReviewEM Central Bank ReportsBulletEmerging Market News
EM BulletCentral Bank of Peru - ReviewHomepageEM Central Bank ReviewLatAm Bank - ReviewEM Central Bank ReportsBulletEmerging Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.