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Bear Steepening With Second Tier Data And 5Y Supply On The Docket

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 1-2bp cheaper for a mild bear steepening, although one that sees a much sharper adjustment in 2s10s to -98bps from yesterday’s -105bp owing to the switch to the new 2Y.
  • 5Y supply offers some interest after yesterday’s 2Y saw a small tail after trading through in the prior two. With only second tier data beyond that, markets are already looking to tomorrow's FOMC policy decision, and to a lesser extent the ECB and BoJ meetings on Thu and Thu pm/Fri am.
  • 2YY +1.2bp at 4.872%, 5YY +1.8bp at 4.169%, 10YY +2.2bp at 3.894%, 30YY +2.2bp at 3.945%.
  • TYU3 trades 9 ticks lower at 111-25, just off a low of 111-23+ having more earnestly pushed through prior support at 112-00 (Jul 20 low) having only probed it yesterday. Next support seen at 111-22+ (50% retrace of Jul 7-18 rally) after which lies 111-11 (61.8% retrace). Volumes are still on the low side but near recent averages at 240k.
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg Jul (0830ET), FHFA house prices May (0900ET), S&P CoreLogic house prices May (0900ET), Conf Board consumer confidence Jul (1000ET), Richmond Fed Jul (1000ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $43B 5Y Note auction
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $50B 42-Day CMB auction
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