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Below 100-Day EMA, Trade Balance & Wholesale Prices On Tap


USD/INR opened marginally lower, dealing at 81.24/30.

  • The pair had its strongest week last week since early November rising ~1.7%, breaking through its 100-Day EMA on Friday for the first time since early 2022.
  • A moderation in US inflation has pressured the USD as broad based weakness in the greenback persisted, and stronger than expected domestic data boosted INR.
  • The bearish momentum for USD/INR continues to gr%, 5.90% expected), but ow as the pair has closed below its 100-day EMA at 81.4849.
  • INR bulls can now target the 200-day EMA at 80.0544, whilst bears first look to close above the 100-day EMA.
  • On tap today there is Dec Wholesale Prices, the Bloomberg survey expects a print of 5.48%, the prior reading was 5.85%. This follows last week CPI print, which surprised modestly on the downside (5.72% y/y, 5.90% expected), but core prices remained elevated. A Bloomberg measure around 6.3% y/y.
  • We also have Dec Trade Balance, Bloomberg survey expects a deficit of ~$23.35bn, the prior reading was a deficit of $23.89bn.
Fig 1: USD/INR Below 100-Day EMA

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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