Berlin Repeat Election Could See SPD & FDP Lose Out But Greens Hold On

On 11 February, 550k voters in Berlin will returnto the polls to cast their ballots in a re-run of the 2021 federal election after a court ruling in late 2023 that invalidated the results in part of the capital. As noted at the time of the decision, the re-run election will not impact the federal coalition's ability to maintain a majority, nor will it see the far-left Die Linke lose seats that could imperil its standing in the Bundestag. Analysis(in German) by election information service walrecht.de implies that while the centre-led Social Democrats and pro-business liberal Free Democrats could lose out, the Greens may hold onto both of the seats lost as a result of the decision. This is in spite of poor opinion polling returns for all three 'traffic light' parties.

• SPD outlook: "The surveys suggest a significantly worse SPD result than in September 2021. Combined with low voter turnout, it could be difficult for the SPD to win back the mandate it lost in the repeat election. [...]. An additional seat gain, [...] now seems unattainable."
• Greens outlook: "Although the Greens are the only party to have lost two seats due to the [Court] decision, they have a good chance of regaining both seats."
• FDP outlook: "In surveys, the FDP is currently not even achieving half of its 2021 result. There is therefore much to suggest that the FDP parliamentary group will shrink by one mandate as a result of the repeat election."