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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Following the first head-to-head debate on the evening of 25 July between the two remaining candidates in the Conservative Party leadership contest, betting markets have shown a further shift towards frontrunner Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.
- Data from Smarkets shows Truss with a 75.8% implied probability of winning the contest and becoming the next PM, up from 64.9% before the BBC debate.
- Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak was seen to have failed to have done enough to win the debate, with his implied probability of becoming PM falling from 34.0% to 23.3% presently.
- Polling data from Opinium showed Conservative voters more likely to see Truss as the debate winner (47% for Truss, 38% for Sunak), while Labour voters saw Sunak as the winner 41% to 30%.
- A second head-to-head takes place today on TalkTV and the website of The Sun newspaper at 1800BST (1300ET, 1900CET).
Chart 1. Who Performed Best in the Debate?, %
Source: Opinium, Sample: 1,032 GB adults. Fieldwork: 25 July
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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