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Beware The Implied Risk on Commodity Currencies

FOREX
  • Empirical and academic research have often considered FX strategies as a good diversifier of the classical equity/bond portfolio as they tend to offer a low correlation to major asset classes.
  • However, the performance of popular FX strategies such as carry or momentum show that they tend to co-move quite significantly with risk-on long-only strategies when price volatility rises.
  • For instance, the carry trade strategy, which consists in investing in currencies with very high interest rates by borrowing in currencies with very low interest rates, tends to experience significant drawdowns similar to the equity ones when the VIX rises.
  • This chart shows an interesting co-movement between the AUDJPY exchange rate, which could be viewed as a proxy of the carry trade strategy (investors borrow in JPY to invest in AUD), and EM equities.
  • Hence, with some risky assets trading at multi-year highs, investors should be aware that investing in commodity currencies (such as the AUD, NZD or CAD) against the JPY will simply add more risk to their traditional portfolio and therefore run the risk of intensifying their losses in case price volatility starts to rise.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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