BI To Remain In Market, Indonesia's BoP Current Account Balance Eyed

Spot USD/IDR has pushed higher today, quickly clawing back its opening loss, but the 200-DMA has capped further gains. The rate last operates at IDR14,380, 5 figures better off. A clean break above the 200-DMA at IDR14,393 would bring the 50-DMA at IDR14,443 into play. Meanwhile, a fall through May 18 low/100-DMA at IDR14,273/14,255 would expose May 10 cycle low of IDR14,145.

• USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen +7 figures at IDR14,417, with bulls looking for gains past May 20 high of IDR14,475, towards the 50-DMA at IDR14,499. Bears keep an eye on trendline support at IDR14,366 and a break here would turn focus to the 100-DMA at IDR14,337.
• Bank Indonesia intervened in FX spot & DNDF markets on Wednesday & Thursday and pledged to remain in the market to "smooth volatility". BI Executive Director Ramelan said yesterday that recent outflows are seen as "rational," due to dividend and foreign debt payments.
• As a quick recap, Indonesia's trade surplus unexpectedly swelled in April, yesterday's report showed. A larger than forecast jump in exports (and, indeed, the fastest increase in more than a decade) underpinned overall trade balance. Exports were boosted by buoyant commodity markets, with oil and gas, m'fing & mining exports seen as main contributors to the headline reading.
• Indonesia's quarterly BoP current account balance comes out later today. According to BBG consensus forecast, Q4's surplus of $795mn is expected to have melted away and turned into a $732mn deficit in the first quarter of this year. BI data on offshore borrowings are also due.
• Worth flagging in advance that next Tuesday will see the latest MonPol decision from Bank Indonesia. All of the analysts surveyed by BBG & all sell-side previews we have seen so far expect policymakers leave the benchmark 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate on hold.